Heading into Christmas, UConn men’s basketball sits at 12-1 and looks like the runaway favorite to win the Big East.
One season after finishing 24-11 with a second-round NCAA Tournament exit, Dan Hurley and his staff added four impact players to a talented returning core. The team defense is vastly improved, and the collection of scoring threats bears a resemblance to the Hurley championship teams that will always be held up as a gold standard for the program under his watch.
“I do think it’s reminiscent more of that ‘23 team that was nine deep,” Hurley said after the Butler win. “Just had so many guys, the bench was deep, the starters could carry you on any given night.”
Alex Karaban led the Huskies with 21 points in their 72-54 victory over DePaul, while Silas Demary Jr. nearly notched his second triple-double of the season with 13 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists.
Hurley has credited Demary Jr. with changing the defensive identity of the team, and still believes there is more to come for the junior guard as he continues to mature and gel with new teammates.
“The pressure that Silas put on the paint today opened up a lot of things for a lot of people,” Hurley said in Chicago. “He’s like the quarterback...what he’s brought to our program and identity is beyond the numbers...that soft identity that we had last year as a defensive team, he changed that whole thing for us.”
Demary Jr. left it all on the court in Chicago, sprinting off the floor as he got sick, returning later in the game and, remarkably, continuing to perform well.
“I think it was just the intensity I was playing...think it was over-exterting, and trying to give it my all,” Demary Jr. said.
Hurley later shared that an electrolyte mix-up may have also contributed to the illness.
Injuries Throughout
This team’s depth has been tested throughout the first third of the season, as Braylon Mullins and Tarris Reed Jr. missed the final preseason game and the start of the season with injuries.
“I think all the injuries this year have forced us to put players in different uncomfortable positions; the team has had to deal with adversity in that way and figure out different ways to win,” Hurley said.
Mullins made his debut in the seventh game of the season, against Illinois at Madison Square Garden. In his second game, he dropped 17 in a big win at Kansas.
The Huskies have won all seven games the freshman has played in, and he’s been crucial to the victory effort in the last three games, scoring between eight and 12 points while playing between 25 and 29 minutes in those contests.
“Braylon doesn’t quite know how to get his shots the same way Solo does,” Hurley explained. “Now we’ve got a bunch of time to get Braylon up to speed to be able to use the actions to get the opportunities that Solo gets.”
Reed Jr. made his return for the second game of the season, throwing down a 20-point double-double in just 17 minutes against UMass Lowell. He suffered another leg injury, which caused him to miss the Arizona and Bryant games before returning for a 15-minute outing against Illinois.
The senior forward missed the Kansas and East Texas A&M games before returning against Florida, scoring 12 points with five rebounds in 24 minutes. He’s maintained that level of production and played 21 or more minutes in every game since.
Hurley pointed out that the big man’s return has had a positive effect on ‘shooting gravity’ for the whole team.
Seemingly in the clear in games against Texas and Butler, albeit with some players dinged up, the Huskies won two physical battles at home. Jaylin Stewart sat out the second half of the Butler game, and Solo Ball missed the DePaul game after a wrist injury from a fall against the Bulldogs.
They claimed a comfortable road win over DePaul, and Ball’s injury is not expected to be long-term. The junior guard had a bit of a shooting slump, starting with the BYU game, but seems to have returned to form. He’s scored 14 or more in five of the last six games, scoring nine against Texas and a career-high 26 against Butler.
“You wouldn’t even know, dealing with him on a daily basis, if he’s shooting 51 percent from three or 15 percent. The guy has just got the perfect make-up to do sports,” Hurley said, adding that “he’s elite. You’re going to see a lot of nights like this (26 points against Butler).”
The Huskies have a decent break until their next game, on December 31st at Xavier, to heal up. Health is one of the main barriers to this team performing to its peak.
Behind the Numbers
The stats look good so far, but they should end up even better if the team can be fully healthy. They will need to be sharper offensively to compete against the best in the country.
Right now, the Huskies are 7th in KenPom overall efficiency, on the strength of the 4th-best defense in the country. They finished 75th in defensive efficiency last season.
Hurley’s squad is 2nd in eFG% allowed, 5th in block rate, 7th in assists per field goal allowed, and 25th in offensive rebounding percentage. It is not so great at forcing turnovers, and among the nation’s worst at keeping opponents from the free-throw line.
The Huskies are decently balanced, at 23rd in the country in offensive efficiency, but their competition for a one-seed or Final Four spot has been better. They need to hit more free throws and cut down on turnovers. They could also stand to get a little stronger on the glass, though Reed’s return to full health should help.
Still, despite the injuries and not being at their best, this team is at No. 4 in the latest AP Poll. Nobody else in the Big East was in the Top 25.
Around the nation, Michigan, Iowa State, Arizona, and Duke, in order, are the other top-5 defenses. All of them have higher-rated offenses than the Huskies right now as well. The national landscape is about 10 deep with teams that could be top-15 on both sides of the ball, including UConn and another former opponent in BYU.
Their upside comes from the possibility of what they can do with a fully activated Mullins and Reed. Freshman center Eric Reibe has been another tremendous revelation, even though he’s had to take a smaller role with Reed’s return. Malachi Smith, Stewart, and Jayden Ross have given great minutes off the bench.
This team is built to win in March, but it has to survive January and February first. It may not be the strongest league, but it still offers a somewhat challenging slate.
Big East Prospects
Looking ahead, the Huskies have 18 games left, and are currently projected to win every single one --- plenty of opportunities to prove they have another level.
St. John’s, Villanova, and Seton Hall are expected to offer the toughest tests. Everyone else is basically Butler or worse.
Creighton is decently rated, at 46th overall in efficiency, but started 5-5 in non-conference play, losing to all of the top-60 opponents it faced. Four other Big East teams are below 100th in KenPom, and Providence is 75th.
The Huskies should complete conference play without any warts on the resume. But they don’t have a high margin for error through the Big East Tournament if they want a high tourney seed.
The toughest games on the upcoming schedule include: at Providence (Weds, 1/7), at Seton Hall (Tues, 1/13), Villanova in Hartford (Sat, 1/24), and at Creighton (Sat, 1/31). Their only win probabilities below 69 percent are the road games against Villanova and St. John’s.
But anything can happen against opponents with familiarity and toughness, as Hurley noted the physicality of the league.
“Because of the level of physicality, it’s not the best thing for us,” Hurley said after DePaul. “We play really hard, we’re not super strong, and we’re not that physical. We’re just relentless, we play relentlessly hard. That’s why we have so much confidence going into the NCAA Tournament and non-conference games.”
